The School of OddsAryna Sabalenka v Naomi Osaka
Head to Head
Option 1: Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Odds
1.3673.53%Min
1.4170.98%Mean
1.4270.42%Median
1.4768.03%Max
Consensus probabilities
64.48%1.551Min
68.08%1.469Max
66.21%1.510Mean
66.27%1.509Median
66.08%1.513IQM
66.25%1.509Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.47 under the IQM model: 66.08%
EV -2.86%Edge -1.94%Kelly -6.08%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Odds
2.5539.22%Min
2.8035.74%Mean
2.8035.71%Median
2.9533.90%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.92%3.132Min
35.52%2.815Max
33.79%2.960Mean
33.73%2.964Median
33.92%2.948IQM
33.75%2.963Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.95 under the IQM model: 33.92%
EV +0.054%Edge +0.018%Kelly +0.028%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Aryna Sabalenka (Local) | Naomi Osaka (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47I 68.03% NM 66.74%EV -2.86% E -1.94% K -6.08% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 33.26%EV +0.054% E +0.018% K +0.028% G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-07-04 00:44 |
| Coolbet | 1.46I 68.49% NM 66.51%EV -3.52% E -2.41% K -7.65% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 33.49%EV -1.64% E -0.566% K -0.864% G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-03 21:40 |
| FanDuel | 1.43I 69.93% NM 66.97%EV -5.50% E -3.85% K -12.79% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 33.03%EV -1.64% E -0.566% K -0.864% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -7.48% E -5.35% K -18.71% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -1.64% E -0.566% K -0.864% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 21:10 |
| Everygame | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -7.48% E -5.35% K -18.71% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -1.64% E -0.566% K -0.864% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 23:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 68.08%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 31.92%EV -1.64% E -0.566% K -0.864% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-03 20:25 |
| GTbets | 1.43I 69.93% NM 66.90%EV -5.50% E -3.85% K -12.79% G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60% NM 33.10%EV -1.98% E -0.685% K -1.05% G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| SportsBet | 1.42I 70.42% NM 67.05%EV -6.16% E -4.34% K -14.67% G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60% NM 32.95%EV -1.98% E -0.685% K -1.05% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-03 20:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.29%EV -7.48% E -5.35% K -18.71% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.71%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.37I 72.99% NM 67.76%EV -9.47% E -6.91% K -25.58% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.24%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.37I 72.99% NM 67.76%EV -9.47% E -6.91% K -25.58% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.24%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Casumo | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| BetRivers | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Grosvenor | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| TABtouch | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Unibet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| betPARX | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Bally Bet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.92%EV -10.13% E -7.45% K -28.13% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.08%EV -2.32% E -0.806% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.74%EV -6.16% E -4.34% K -14.67% G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09% NM 33.26%EV -3.34% E -1.17% K -1.80% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 00:40 |
| Bovada | 1.45I 68.97% NM 65.88%EV -4.18% E -2.88% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 34.12%EV -5.03% E -1.80% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-03 20:08 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.43I 69.93% NM 66.19%EV -5.50% E -3.85% K -12.79% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 33.81%EV -5.03% E -1.80% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| theScore Bet | 1.43I 69.93% NM 66.19%EV -5.50% E -3.85% K -12.79% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 33.81%EV -5.03% E -1.80% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-03 22:04 |
| Fanatics | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.35%EV -6.16% E -4.34% K -14.67% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 33.65%EV -5.03% E -1.80% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.35%EV -6.16% E -4.34% K -14.67% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 33.65%EV -5.03% E -1.80% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.35%EV -6.16% E -4.34% K -14.67% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 33.65%EV -5.03% E -1.80% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-03 20:10 |
| Fliff | 1.41I 70.92% NM 66.51%EV -6.82% E -4.84% K -16.64% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 33.49%EV -5.03% E -1.80% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-03 21:35 |
| Betsson | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.27%EV -6.16% E -4.34% K -14.67% G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84% NM 33.73%EV -5.37% E -1.93% K -3.00% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| NordicBet | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.27%EV -6.16% E -4.34% K -14.67% G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84% NM 33.73%EV -5.37% E -1.93% K -3.00% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.46I 68.49% NM 65.32%EV -3.52% E -2.41% K -7.65% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.68%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-03 21:15 |
| DraftKings | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
| Betway | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 18:49 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 18:47 |
| betfred_uk | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 21:34 |
| 888sport | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| William Hill | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 19:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 19:45 |
| BetMGM | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 20:30 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 21:40 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 21:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.43I 69.93% NM 65.79%EV -5.50% E -3.85% K -12.79% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.21%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-03 19:19 |
| Bet Victor | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.27%EV -7.48% E -5.35% K -18.71% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 33.73%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-03 20:10 |
| BoyleSports | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.27%EV -7.48% E -5.35% K -18.71% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 33.73%EV -6.73% E -2.45% K -3.85% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-03 22:50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.41I 70.92% NM 65.78%EV -6.82% E -4.84% K -16.64% G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90% NM 34.22%EV -8.09% E -2.98% K -4.73% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-03 20:09 |
| Neds | 1.46I 68.49% NM 64.90%EV -3.52% E -2.41% K -7.65% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 35.10%EV -8.43% E -3.12% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 20:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.46I 68.49% NM 64.90%EV -3.52% E -2.41% K -7.65% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 35.10%EV -8.43% E -3.12% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 20:30 |
| PlayUp | 1.45I 68.97% NM 65.06%EV -4.18% E -2.88% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 34.94%EV -8.43% E -3.12% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 21:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.22%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 34.78%EV -8.43% E -3.12% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-03 20:29 |
| Coral | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.22%EV -4.84% E -3.36% K -11.00% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 34.78%EV -8.43% E -3.12% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-03 20:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.41I 70.92% NM 65.69%EV -6.82% E -4.84% K -16.64% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 34.31%EV -8.43% E -3.12% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-03 22:05 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40I 71.43% NM 65.85%EV -7.48% E -5.35% K -18.71% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 34.15%EV -8.43% E -3.12% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-04 00:20 |
| TAB | 1.46I 68.49% NM 64.48%EV -3.52% E -2.41% K -7.65% G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74% NM 35.52%EV -10.12% E -3.82% K -6.13% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 21:39 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.39I 71.94% NM 65.59%EV -8.14% E -5.86% K -20.88% G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74% NM 34.41%EV -10.12% E -3.82% K -6.13% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-03 20:09 |
| ReBet | 1.39I 71.94% NM 65.59%EV -8.14% E -5.86% K -20.88% G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74% NM 34.41%EV -10.12% E -3.82% K -6.13% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.38I 72.46% NM 64.89%EV -8.80% E -6.38% K -23.17% G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22% NM 35.11%EV -13.51% E -5.30% K -8.72% G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-03 20:04 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Aryna Sabalenka (Local) | Naomi Osaka (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.47I 68.03% | 3.05I 32.79% | 0.8% | 2026-07-04 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.47I 68.03% | 3.00I 33.33% | 1.4% | 2026-07-04 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.47I 68.03% | 3.00I 33.33% | 1.4% | 2026-07-04 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.47I 68.03% | 3.00I 33.33% | 1.4% | 2026-07-04 00:55 |
| ProphetX | 1.44I 69.44% | 3.05I 32.79% | 2.2% | 2026-07-04 01:35 |
| Novig | 1.43I 69.93% | 2.82I 35.46% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 00:10 |