The School of OddsRoman Safiullin v Novak Djokovic
Head to Head
Option 1: Roman Safiullin (Local)
Odds
4.2023.81%Min
4.9520.19%Mean
5.0020.00%Median
6.0516.53%Max
Consensus probabilities
15.74%6.354Min
21.20%4.717Max
18.70%5.347Mean
18.83%5.310Median
18.75%5.334IQM
18.51%5.403Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 6.05 under the IQM model: 18.75%
EV +13.43%Edge +2.22%Kelly +2.66%Growth +0.357%
Option 2: Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Odds
1.1289.29%Min
1.1686.57%Mean
1.1686.21%Median
1.1884.75%Max
Consensus probabilities
78.80%1.269Min
84.26%1.187Max
81.30%1.230Mean
81.17%1.232Median
81.25%1.231IQM
81.49%1.227Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.18 under the IQM model: 81.25%
EV -4.12%Edge -3.49%Kelly -22.91%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Roman Safiullin (Local) ▼ | Novak Djokovic (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 6.05I 16.53% NM 15.74%EV +13.43% E +2.22% K +2.66% G +0.357% | 1.13I 88.50% NM 84.26%EV -8.19% E -7.24% K -62.97% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| FanDuel | 5.90I 16.95% NM 16.19%EV +10.61% E +1.80% K +2.17% G +0.230% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 83.81%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| 1xBet | 5.85I 17.09% NM 16.79%EV +9.68% E +1.65% K +2.00% G +0.193% | 1.18I 84.75% NM 83.21%EV -4.12% E -3.49% K -22.91% G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-07-03 19:00 |
| Coolbet | 5.70I 17.54% NM 17.03%EV +6.87% E +1.20% K +1.46% G +0.100% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 82.97%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-03 18:28 |
| Betway | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.29%EV +3.12% E +0.566% K +0.692% G +0.022% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.71%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| 888sport | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV +3.12% E +0.566% K +0.692% G +0.022% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| William Hill | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV +3.12% E +0.566% K +0.692% G +0.022% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV +3.12% E +0.566% K +0.692% G +0.022% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Sky Bet | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.04%EV +3.12% E +0.566% K +0.692% G +0.022% | 1.13I 88.50% NM 82.96%EV -8.19% E -7.24% K -62.97% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Paddy Power | 5.50I 18.18% NM 16.92%EV +3.12% E +0.566% K +0.692% G +0.022% | 1.12I 89.29% NM 83.08%EV -9.00% E -8.03% K -74.98% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Pinnacle | 5.46I 18.32% NM 17.77%EV +2.37% E +0.433% K +0.530% G +0.013% | 1.18I 84.75% NM 82.23%EV -4.12% E -3.49% K -22.91% G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-03 17:55 |
| DraftKings | 5.26I 19.01% NM 18.07%EV -1.38% E -0.263% K -0.325% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.93%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Bovada | 5.25I 19.05% NM 18.22%EV -1.57% E -0.299% K -0.370% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.78%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.97%EV -1.57% E -0.299% K -0.370% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.03%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.97%EV -1.57% E -0.299% K -0.370% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.03%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.20I 19.23% NM 18.24%EV -2.51% E -0.482% K -0.597% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.76%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-03 19:00 |
| GTbets | 5.12I 19.53% NM 18.21%EV -4.01% E -0.783% K -0.973% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 81.79%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| Fliff | 5.10I 19.61% NM 18.40%EV -4.38% E -0.860% K -1.07% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.60%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-03 19:00 |
| betfred_uk | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 18:20 |
| Fanatics | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| Codere (IT) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 18:20 |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Neds | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Tipico (DE) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.83%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.17%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 18:10 |
| BetMGM | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.83%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.17%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| NetBet (FR) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.83%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.17%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| Coral | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.70%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.30%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.70%EV -6.26% E -1.25% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.30%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| NordicBet | 4.93I 20.28% NM 19.05%EV -7.57% E -1.54% K -1.93% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 80.95%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| Betsson | 4.93I 20.28% NM 19.05%EV -7.57% E -1.54% K -1.93% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 80.95%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-03 18:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.14%EV -8.13% E -1.66% K -2.09% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 80.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| theScore Bet | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.14%EV -8.13% E -1.66% K -2.09% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 80.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-03 18:20 |
| PlayUp | 4.85I 20.62% NM 19.44%EV -9.07% E -1.87% K -2.36% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 80.56%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-03 18:30 |
| LeoVegas | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.19%EV -10.01% E -2.09% K -2.63% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 80.81%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| Dabble (AU) | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.76%EV -10.95% E -2.30% K -2.92% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 80.24%EV -4.94% E -4.22% K -29.03% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-03 18:30 |
| Bet Victor | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.49%EV -10.95% E -2.30% K -2.92% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 80.51%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Unibet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Casumo | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| BetRivers | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Grosvenor | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| TABtouch | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Bally Bet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| betPARX | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -13.76% E -2.99% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -5.75% E -4.96% K -35.93% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.35%EV -15.63% E -3.47% K -4.47% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 79.65%EV -6.56% E -5.70% K -43.74% G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| ReBet | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.58%EV -17.51% E -3.98% K -5.15% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 79.42%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.58%EV -17.51% E -3.98% K -5.15% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 79.42%EV -7.37% E -6.47% K -52.66% G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.30I 23.26% NM 20.81%EV -19.38% E -4.51% K -5.87% G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50% NM 79.19%EV -8.19% E -7.24% K -62.97% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| Unibet (FR) | 4.20I 23.81% NM 21.20%EV -21.26% E -5.06% K -6.64% G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50% NM 78.80%EV -8.19% E -7.24% K -62.97% G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-03 18:20 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Roman Safiullin (Local) | Novak Djokovic (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 5.50I 18.18% | 1.19I 84.03% | 2.2% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 5.50I 18.18% | 1.19I 84.03% | 2.2% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 5.50I 18.18% | 1.19I 84.03% | 2.2% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| ProphetX | 5.30I 18.87% | 1.19I 84.03% | 2.9% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Novig | 5.41I 18.48% | 1.18I 84.75% | 3.2% | 2026-07-03 18:50 |
| Matchbook | 5.50I 18.18% | 1.14I 87.72% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 17:25 |
| Smarkets | 4.20I 23.81% | 1.13I 88.50% | 12.3% | 2026-07-03 18:20 |