The School of OddsJannik Sinner v Shintaro Mochizuki
Head to Head
Option 1: Jannik Sinner (Local)
Odds
1.00100.00%Min
1.0198.79%Mean
1.0199.01%Median
1.0397.09%Max
Consensus probabilities
89.47%1.118Min
98.06%1.020Max
93.31%1.072Mean
93.88%1.065Median
93.79%1.066IQM
93.68%1.067Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.03 under the IQM model: 93.79%
EV -3.40%Edge -3.30%Kelly -113.18%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit)
Odds
8.5011.76%Min
17.545.70%Mean
17.005.88%Median
51.001.96%Max
Consensus probabilities
1.94%51.495Min
10.53%9.500Max
6.69%14.956Mean
6.12%16.347Median
6.21%16.105IQM
6.32%15.824Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 51.00 under the IQM model: 6.21%
EV +216.67%Edge +4.25%Kelly +4.33%Growth +9.39%
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Jannik Sinner (Local) | Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp | 1.01I 99.01% NM 98.06%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96% NM 1.94%EV +216.67% E +4.25% K +4.33% G +9.39% | 1.0% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| 1xBet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 96.84%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23% NM 3.16%EV +92.48% E +2.98% K +3.08% G +2.85% | 2.2% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| William Hill | 1.01I 99.01% NM 96.63%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45% NM 3.37%EV +80.07% E +2.76% K +2.86% G +2.29% | 2.5% | 2026-07-03 18:25 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 96.26%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85% NM 3.74%EV +61.44% E +2.36% K +2.46% G +1.51% | 2.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 95.75%EV -4.33% E -4.25% K -216.67% G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35% NM 4.25%EV +42.81% E +1.86% K +1.95% G +0.833% | 2.4% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.02I 98.04% NM 95.37%EV -4.33% E -4.25% K -216.67% G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76% NM 4.63%EV +30.39% E +1.45% K +1.52% G +0.462% | 2.8% | 2026-07-03 17:25 |
| 888sport | 1.01I 99.01% NM 95.41%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76% NM 4.59%EV +30.39% E +1.45% K +1.52% G +0.462% | 3.8% | 2026-07-03 16:54 |
| Coolbet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 95.15%EV -4.33% E -4.25% K -216.67% G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00% NM 4.85%EV +24.18% E +1.21% K +1.27% G +0.308% | 3.0% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.95%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26% NM 5.05%EV +17.97% E +0.946% K +0.999% G +0.179% | 4.3% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.82%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.50I 5.41% NM 5.18%EV +14.87% E +0.804% K +0.850% G +0.126% | 4.4% | 2026-07-03 16:50 |
| Unibet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Casumo | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Grosvenor | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| BetRivers | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Bally Bet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| betPARX | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Bovada | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56% NM 5.31%EV +11.77% E +0.654% K +0.692% G +0.081% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 17:59 |
| betfred_uk | 1.02I 98.04% NM 94.34%EV -4.33% E -4.25% K -216.67% G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88% NM 5.66%EV +5.56% E +0.327% K +0.347% G +0.019% | 3.9% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| FanDuel | 1.02I 98.04% NM 94.34%EV -4.33% E -4.25% K -216.67% G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88% NM 5.66%EV +5.56% E +0.327% K +0.347% G +0.019% | 3.9% | 2026-07-03 17:24 |
| Betway | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.39%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88% NM 5.61%EV +5.56% E +0.327% K +0.347% G +0.019% | 4.9% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.39%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88% NM 5.61%EV +5.56% E +0.327% K +0.347% G +0.019% | 4.9% | 2026-07-03 17:25 |
| NordicBet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.06%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25% NM 5.94%EV -0.653% E -0.041% K -0.044% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Fanatics | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.06%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25% NM 5.94%EV -0.653% E -0.041% K -0.044% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-03 17:25 |
| Betsson | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.06%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25% NM 5.94%EV -0.653% E -0.041% K -0.044% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Neds | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.06%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25% NM 5.94%EV -0.653% E -0.041% K -0.044% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.06%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25% NM 5.94%EV -0.653% E -0.041% K -0.044% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.88%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45% NM 6.12%EV -3.76% E -0.242% K -0.259% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Coral | 1.03I 97.09% NM 93.57%EV -3.40% E -3.30% K -113.18% G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.43%EV -6.86% E -0.457% K -0.490% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.03I 97.09% NM 93.57%EV -3.40% E -3.30% K -113.18% G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.43%EV -6.86% E -0.457% K -0.490% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.31%EV -6.86% E -0.457% K -0.490% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.31%EV -6.86% E -0.457% K -0.490% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-03 17:25 |
| theScore Bet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.69%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.31%EV -6.86% E -0.457% K -0.490% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.38%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02% NM 6.62%EV -11.52% E -0.808% K -0.869% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 16:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.02I 98.04% NM 93.21%EV -4.33% E -4.25% K -216.67% G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14% NM 6.79%EV -13.07% E -0.934% K -1.01% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.27%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14% NM 6.73%EV -13.07% E -0.934% K -1.01% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.27%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14% NM 6.73%EV -13.07% E -0.934% K -1.01% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 16:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.72%EV -4.33% E -4.25% K -216.67% G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69% NM 7.28%EV -19.28% E -1.48% K -1.61% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.01I 99.01% NM 91.59%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.41%EV -31.70% E -2.88% K -3.17% G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-03 18:19 |
| LeoVegas | 1.01I 99.01% NM 91.59%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.41%EV -31.70% E -2.88% K -3.17% G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-03 18:15 |
| ReBet | 1.01I 99.01% NM 90.30%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64% NM 9.70%EV -41.63% E -4.43% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 90.30%EV -5.27% E -5.22% K -527.13% G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64% NM 9.70%EV -41.63% E -4.43% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.00I 100.00% NM 89.47%EV -6.21% E -6.21% K +0.000% G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76% NM 10.53%EV -47.22% E -5.56% K -6.30% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-03 16:25 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Jannik Sinner (Local) | Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.03I 97.09% | 26.00I 3.85% | 0.9% | 2026-07-03 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.03I 97.09% | 26.00I 3.85% | 0.9% | 2026-07-03 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.03I 97.09% | 26.00I 3.85% | 0.9% | 2026-07-03 16:50 |
| Matchbook | 1.02I 98.04% | 23.00I 4.35% | 2.4% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Novig | 1.03I 97.09% | 14.29I 7.00% | 4.1% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.00I 100.00% | 22.99I 4.35% | 4.3% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
Arbitrage (2 combinations)+0.96%Coral 1.03 (98.0%) / PlayUp 51.00 (2.0%)Show all 2 combinations
| Jannik Sinner (Local) | Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit) | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Coral 1.03 (98.0%) | PlayUp 51.00 (2.0%) | +0.961% |
| Ladbrokes (UK) 1.03 (98.0%) | PlayUp 51.00 (2.0%) | +0.961% |